UNC Asheville

Conference:	BSth
Expected RPI:	130.0
Current RPI:	130
Expected SOS:	204
Current SOS:	204
Current Record:	19-12
Expected Record:	19-12
Current Conf Record:	14-6
Expected Conf Record:	14-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	5-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	13-5
Current OOC Record:	5-6
Expected OOC Record:	5-6
Expected OOC RPI:	111
Expected OOC SOS:	55

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
19-12	130.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UNC Asheville.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Rhode Island (19.0)	A10	A	84-60	L	0%
11-17	Vanderbilt (132.0)	SEC	A	79-76	L	0%
11-19	Austin Peay (164.0)	OVC	A	79-82	W	100%
11-22	Monmouth (199.0)	MAAC	H	62-51	W	100%
11-26	Wofford (129.0)	SC	H	85-65	W	100%
11-29	USC Upstate (344.0)	ASun	H	82-70	W	100%
12-3	Clemson (11.0)	ACC	A	83-52	L	0%
12-5	Furman (97.0)	SC	A	83-72	L	0%
12-17	Western Carolina (215.0)	SC	H	72-76	L	0%
12-19	UNC Greensboro (65.0)	SC	A	60-67	W	100%
12-22	Saint Mary's (40.0)	WCC	A	95-69	L	0%
12-30	Campbell (267.0)	BSth	H	85-79	W	100%
1-3	High Point (273.0)	BSth	A	84-74	L	0%
1-6	Radford (128.0)	BSth	A	90-70	L	0%
1-9	Longwood (337.0)	BSth	H	90-80	W	100%
1-12	Presbyterian (319.0)	BSth	A	56-76	W	100%
1-15	Charleston Southern (261.0)	BSth	H	83-73	W	100%
1-18	Winthrop (173.0)	BSth	A	85-58	L	0%
1-21	Liberty (211.0)	BSth	A	68-84	W	100%
1-24	Gardner Webb (244.0)	BSth	H	65-60	W	100%
1-27	High Point (273.0)	BSth	H	84-77	W	100%
2-1	Campbell (267.0)	BSth	A	57-64	W	100%
2-3	Presbyterian (319.0)	BSth	H	75-61	W	100%
2-7	Longwood (337.0)	BSth	A	73-78	W	100%
2-10	Radford (128.0)	BSth	H	66-64	W	100%
2-15	Liberty (211.0)	BSth	H	69-82	L	0%
2-18	Charleston Southern (261.0)	BSth	A	80-85	W	100%
2-22	Winthrop (173.0)	BSth	H	89-75	W	100%
2-24	Gardner Webb (244.0)	BSth	A	72-61	L	0%
3-1	Charleston Southern (261.0)	BSth	H	71-66	W	100%
3-2	Liberty (211.0)	BSth	H	64-69	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UNC Asheville's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

UNC Asheville's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against UNC Asheville.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
UNC Asheville	BSth	26.56	26.56	63.91	63.91	7.39	7.39
Liberty	BSth	5.93	5.93	53.57	53.57	0.42	0.42
Charleston Southern	BSth	5.86	5.86	48.00	48.00	-0.23	-0.23
Radford	BSth	4.45	4.45	63.33	63.33	1.19	1.19
Longwood	BSth	4.36	4.36	14.29	14.29	-3.12	-3.12
Winthrop	BSth	4.35	4.35	57.69	57.69	0.67	0.67
Presbyterian	BSth	4.34	4.34	29.63	29.63	-1.77	-1.77
Campbell	BSth	4.33	4.33	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
High Point	BSth	4.32	4.32	40.00	40.00	-0.86	-0.86
Gardner Webb	BSth	4.31	4.31	37.04	37.04	-1.12	-1.12
UNC Greensboro	SC	1.99	1.99	80.00	80.00	1.19	1.19
Western Carolina	SC	1.88	1.88	34.48	34.48	-0.58	-0.58
Furman	SC	1.86	1.86	66.67	66.67	0.62	0.62
Wofford	SC	1.86	1.86	62.07	62.07	0.45	0.45
USC Upstate	ASun	1.81	1.81	11.11	11.11	-1.41	-1.41
Vanderbilt	SEC	1.69	1.69	35.48	35.48	-0.49	-0.49
Clemson	ACC	1.64	1.64	70.97	70.97	0.69	0.69
Austin Peay	OVC	1.64	1.64	55.17	55.17	0.17	0.17
Monmouth	MAAC	1.61	1.61	36.67	36.67	-0.43	-0.43
Rhode Island	A10	1.61	1.61	77.42	77.42	0.88	0.88
Saint Mary's	WCC	1.61	1.61	84.38	84.38	1.11	1.11
VMI	SC	0.46	0.46	25.00	25.00	-0.23	-0.23
The Citadel	SC	0.35	0.35	27.59	27.59	-0.16	-0.16
Mercer	SC	0.32	0.32	53.33	53.33	0.02	0.02
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.26	0.26	71.88	71.88	0.12	0.12
Samford	SC	0.24	0.24	26.67	26.67	-0.11	-0.11
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.23	0.23	26.67	26.67	-0.11	-0.11
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.22	0.22	65.62	65.62	0.07	0.07
Chattanooga	SC	0.21	0.21	25.81	25.81	-0.10	-0.10
Tennessee	SEC	0.19	0.19	75.76	75.76	0.10	0.10
Virginia	ACC	0.18	0.18	93.94	93.94	0.16	0.16
Davidson	A10	0.16	0.16	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Georgia	SEC	0.16	0.16	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.14	0.14	78.12	78.12	0.08	0.08
Florida St.	ACC	0.14	0.14	64.52	64.52	0.04	0.04
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.14	0.14	25.81	25.81	-0.07	-0.07
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.13	0.13	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.13	0.13	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Florida	SEC	0.13	0.13	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Wake Forest	ACC	0.13	0.13	35.48	35.48	-0.04	-0.04
Charlotte	CUSA	0.12	0.12	17.86	17.86	-0.07	-0.07
Stetson	ASun	0.12	0.12	28.57	28.57	-0.05	-0.05
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.11	0.11	31.03	31.03	-0.04	-0.04
Jacksonville	ASun	0.11	0.11	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
College of Charleston	CAA	0.11	0.11	77.42	77.42	0.06	0.06
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.11	0.11	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.11	0.11	30.00	30.00	-0.04	-0.04
East Carolina	Amer	0.11	0.11	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
VCU	A10	0.11	0.11	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Fairfield	MAAC	0.11	0.11	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
North Carolina	ACC	0.10	0.10	71.43	71.43	0.04	0.04
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.10	0.10	36.36	36.36	-0.03	-0.03
Elon	CAA	0.10	0.10	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
San Francisco	WCC	0.10	0.10	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.09	0.09	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.09	0.09	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.09	0.09	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.08	0.08	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
North Florida	ASun	0.08	0.08	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Saint Louis	A10	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Miami FL	ACC	0.08	0.08	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.08	0.08	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
Illinois	B10	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.08	0.08	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Belmont	OVC	0.08	0.08	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.08	0.08	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Georgia St.	SB	0.08	0.08	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
Houston	Amer	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Howard	MEAC	0.08	0.08	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.08	0.08	16.67	16.67	-0.05	-0.05
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.08	0.08	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.08	0.08	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.08	0.08	39.39	39.39	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina	SEC	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Iona	MAAC	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Kentucky	SEC	0.08	0.08	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Seton Hall	BE	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Nevada	MWC	0.08	0.08	79.41	79.41	0.04	0.04
Ohio St.	B10	0.08	0.08	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
Dayton	A10	0.07	0.07	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
BYU	WCC	0.07	0.07	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Pepperdine	WCC	0.07	0.07	16.13	16.13	-0.05	-0.05
William & Mary	CAA	0.06	0.06	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Lipscomb	ASun	0.06	0.06	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
NJIT	ASun	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.06	0.06	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.06	0.06	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Chicago St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	3.33	3.33	-0.05	-0.05
Hampton	MEAC	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Maryland	B10	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
UCF	Amer	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	9.68	9.68	-0.04	-0.04
Columbia	Ivy	0.05	0.05	26.92	26.92	-0.02	-0.02
Cornell	Ivy	0.05	0.05	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Murray St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	82.76	82.76	0.04	0.04
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.05	0.05	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Canisius	MAAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Manhattan	MAAC	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Siena	MAAC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
California	P12	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.02	-0.02
Harvard	Ivy	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Hofstra	CAA	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.05	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.05	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
La Salle	A10	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
LSU	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
UC Davis	BW	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Gonzaga	WCC	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Pacific	WCC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Portland	WCC	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
San Diego	WCC	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Santa Clara	WCC	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Creighton	BE	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Denver	Sum	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
UMKC	WAC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Appalachian St.	SB	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Cincinnati	Amer	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Miami OH	MAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Morehead St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	22.22	22.22	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Texas Tech	B12	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Troy	SB	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
UT Arlington	SB	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Albany	AE	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Bucknell	Pat	0.03	0.03	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Butler	BE	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Connecticut	Amer	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Lehigh	Pat	0.03	0.03	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Marist	MAAC	0.03	0.03	19.35	19.35	-0.02	-0.02
New Hampshire	AE	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Penn	Ivy	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Yale	Ivy	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Brown	Ivy	0.03	0.03	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Fordham	A10	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
George Mason	A10	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
George Washington	A10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Holy Cross	Pat	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.03	0.03	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Louisville	ACC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.03	0.03	76.67	76.67	0.01	0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Notre Dame	ACC	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Ohio	MAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Providence	BE	0.03	0.03	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Richmond	A10	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Syracuse	ACC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
TCU	B12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Temple	Amer	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Texas A&M	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	44.12	44.12	-0.00	-0.00
USC	P12	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.02	0.02	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.02	0.02	83.33	83.33	0.02	0.02
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.02	0.02	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
San Jose St.	MWC	0.02	0.02	10.34	10.34	-0.02	-0.02
Seattle	WAC	0.02	0.02	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
UC Irvine	BW	0.02	0.02	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Washington St.	P12	0.02	0.02	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01